Original post got deleted by the auto-mods last week obviously..
Anyways for all those who use big words like Macroeconomics etc, here is some education which the books don’t teach you.
Lot of confusion here about money printing by Feds leading to inflation etc. While it is true that money-printing can lead to hyper-inflation, but we need to look at it from a more fundamental perspective.
The first most important question to ask what is the currency that is being printed and what is it backed by? This is where we flaunt our huge USD dicks. USD is the predominant reserve currency in the world, countries essentially trust the almighty dollar, which then results in other currencies being backed by some sort of USD collateral. Most respectable central banks around the world have forex reserves in USD to back up not only their currency but also inter country transactions. This is where the Fed can literally have no limits on being jacked to the tits on printing money. Here is where it gets interesting, since most of the securities in the World have dollar as the underlying medium, if the US economy and dollar collapse, that will trigger a financial meltdown like none other virtually shaking the foundation of modern economics.
For more information on Global banking, Fed repo etc, read this well researched post: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fe5s7e/the_fed_repos_are_an_attempt_to_prop_up_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Now one might say hey but that makes it very unfair and it seems like the US fed can fucking do whatever they want. Yes this is correct, they will. because they are the fucking makers of u/WSBGod
; they are the WorldStreetBankingGod Therefore the World losing confidence in the dollar is a very weak argument.
For further understanding on why collapse of dollar is unlikely, please read the article below: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/091416/what-would-it-take-us-dollar-collapse.asp
Now coming to the meat of the argument about printing money leading to inflation which is partially true but not really, remember QE around the world in developed countries (especially the ones with strong currencies) has never resulted monetary inflation that the economists know of, but asset price inflation (including equity) is a different story. This is where i think there might be a concern of an impeding global financial crisis. Below are the articles which talk about inflation, QE etc https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/pb/pb15-7.pdf https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022615/why-didnt-quantitative-easing-lead-hyperinflation.asp
Asset price inflation is the real danger here and that is why QE cannot be maintained without setting the stage for another, and much bigger and even more magnificent collapse of the financial system, the Big One if you will, and all the real-economy mayhem it would entail.
Now the feds and other central banks around the world have learnt key lessons from the 2008 financial crisis and with the banks now being more connected than ever before in a global economy, everyone will be looking to the Fed to lead them out of the bear-hole when we get to it. I think people really underestimate the power of the Federal reserve and are really autsitic if they think that a bat flu will take SPY to $0. The fact that we are still the most dominant economy in the World coupled with the USD being the reserve currency gives Fed a free hand to print money without any credibility crisis as long as they use that as the last measure to stop the “GLOBAL” economic crisis. Note that the key word here is global, because when the whole world is on fire, nobody bothers much about whether you started the fire as long as you are also the one who is extinguishing it. Another article to help understand this point is the one below: https://www.ft.com/content/7562d1dc-bbb3-11e5-bf7e-8a339b6f2164
TL;DR: Don’t fight the Feds, they can print money, will print money and will get away with printing money to start the next bull run. Most macroeconomic theories and historical examples don’t apply to the US since we are both the creator and the player in the game. Markets might sell-off in short-term, but long term will go up as long as the Feds and the US government don’t create a credibility crisis domestically and internationally. Don’t go all in on puts, because you be up against a very formidable force in the Federal reserve and the US Government.
PS: I am not an economist but definitely an Autist. I am 10k in various puts and hoping to get out tomorrow when it plunges and sit on the sidelines.
Edit 1: I was in puts till end of last week, this post was made originally a week back. Currently in calls.
Thanks to all who gave me such wonderful appreciation and to the mods who gave me platinum
, I don't deserve your praise, I just love our country. I want it to succeed.
Now let's get riiiiiiiiigt into the neeeeeeewwws.
-PM Khan makes it to Foreign Policy magazine's 2019 Global Thinkers list
Prime Minister Imran Khan has been named among Foreign Policy magazine's 2019 list of 'Global Thinkers'. The short writeup on the premier states that Khan, "a former cricket star, finally got the job he had long coveted ─ prime minister"."His reward was an incredibly difficult to-do list, starting with Pakistan's looming fiscal and debt crises," it added.
Prime Minister Khan shares the spotlight with other world leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former US president Barack Obama and his wife Michelle, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and US lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
-Atletico shoot for football future in Pakistan
Spain´s Atletico Madrid are taking on a challenge tougher than winning La Liga — developing football in cricket-mad Pakistan, where bat and ball are king, pitches come with stumps not goalposts, and even the prime minister is a former World Cup winner. During a recent session at the club´s new facility in Lahore — the country´s first European football academy — a cabal of Spanish coaches watched as a new class of young Pakistani hopefuls fired off penalty kicks.
-National Job Programme to be launched for providing jobs to youth
The National Job Programme will be launched under the Prime Minister’s Youth Programme for providing job opportunities to the educated youth. In this connection Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Youth Affairs Muhammad Usman Dar held a meeting with Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit in Islamabad on Monday to explore avenues of collaboration for the development of an effective National Job Programme.
The special assistant to the prime minister appreciated GIZ for its role in the development of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) sector in Pakistan. He expressed hope to leverage their expertise in the field for creating better employment opportunities for the youth. The National Job Programme would include vocational training of youth in best Technical and Vocational Training Institutes and their placements in relevant industries to spur national economic growth.
-You Can Even Sleep in This New Luxury Bus Service from Karachi to Quetta
The 9-hour journey between Karachi and Quetta has now been made easier thanks to a newly launched luxury service. ‘Super International’ is aiming to make the experience of traveling on a bus as comfortable as possible. For that, apart from the usual amenities, it offers an onboard sleeping facility. Hence, the company’s slogan ‘Sleep Well, Live Well.” According to details, the bus will depart from Sadar area of Karachi on alternate days throughout the week. The ticket price is still to be confirmed but it will be around Rs. 3,000 per person.
-KSE 100 picks 237 points on foreign inflow news
The benchmark KSE 100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange surged by 237.27 points or (+0.60%) closed at 39,543 on Monday. Analysts at Arif Habib Limited said that the Market moved upwards on the back of positive news flow on financial support from friendly countries in Gulf, as well as anticipation of China’s support in the offing. Higher international crude prices helped E&P sector to perform better, with OGDC and PPL scoring 4M and 3.1M shares respectively. Besides, expectation of improvement in Core Delta for EPCL, helped stock reach new highs and last half hour’s trading pulled the price back above 41.
-Federal government released Rs 233 billion under PSDP
The federal government has released Rs233.4 billion against the total allocation of Rs675 billion under its Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2018-19 for various ongoing and new schemes. The released funds include Rs86.5 billion for federal ministries, Rs111 billion for corporations, and Rs25.6 billion for special areas, according to a data released by Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform on Monday. Out of these allocations, the government released Rs101.46 billion for National Highway Authority out of total allocation of Rs185.2 billion, whereas Rs9.6 billion have been released for NTDC and PEPCO for which an amount of Rs33.36 billion was allocated under PSDP 2018-19. Similarly, Rs4.6 billion have been released for Communication Division (other than National Highway Authority) for which the government has earmarked Rs13.97 billion under PSDP 2018-19. Railways Division received Rs8.07 billion out of its total allocation of Rs28.06 billion whereas Aviation Division received Rs443.5 million out of total allocation of Rs3.65 billion. The government also released an amount of Rs11.8 billion for various development projects of Higher Education Commission out of total allocation of Rs30.9 billion.
The government also released Rs2.2 billion for National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination Division, for which an amount of Rs10.9 billion have been allocated. An amount of Rs1.44 billion has been released for Finance Division out of its total allocations of Rs12.34 billion and Rs540.68 million have been released for Climate Change Division out of its total allocations of Rs802.7 million for the current year, Rs20.3 million for Human Rights Division, and Rs408.5 million for National Food Security and Research Division.
-Discussions Continue on Economic Bailout Package for Pakistan: IMF
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Pakistan are continuing discussions for a bailout package. Fitch Solutions stated in its latest report that the latest round of Chinese largesse has given Islamabad the confidence to snub the IMF’s more stringent requirements for obtaining funds. However, should Pakistan experience acute signs of a currency crisis over the coming months, we would not be surprised to see talks between Pakistan and the IMF resume, it added.
-PM Imran Khan holds important meeting with Qatari PM, followed by official dinner
Prime Minister Imran Khan met Prime Minister of Qatar Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani at his residence in Doha on Monday. Bilateral relations, with a focus on economic cooperation between the two countries, were discussed during the meeting. The Qatari Prime Minister also hosted a dinner in the honour of Prime Minister and his delegation.
-USD likely to trade in Rs138 and 139 range, positive news expected from Qatar: Malik Bostan
President Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP), Malik Bostan Khan has said that at positive news is expected from the Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit of Qatar, adding that if Pakistan is able to get deferred payment facility on imported gas from Qatar, the country will sail out of economic crisis in three years. He said Pakistan’s delegation visiting Qatar would also discuss human resource and security exports to Qatar, which will give a boost to remittances.
-Over 3.9 crore children under age of five to undergo polio immunization across Pakistan
The first nationwide polio vaccination campaign of 2019 started across the country on Monday to immunize over 39 million children despite harsh cold weather with continuous rainfall and snowfall on hilly areas. According to an official of National Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), as many as 260,000 front line workers started going door to door across all provinces and towns to ensure more than 39 million children under the age of five receive two drops of the vaccine to protect them against the polio virus.
-Pakistan sees increase in IT exports, government targets $7 billion
The Information Technology (IT) and Telecommunication industry of the country
has contributed US $ 540 million foreign exchange to national kitty through exports during first two quarters of this fiscal year 2018-2019. The telecommunication, computer and information services managed to export IT and IT-enabled services worth US $ 540 million, seeing an increase of US $ 20 million as compared to exports figures of same period last year, statistics of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) revealed. It is pertinent to mention here that Pakistan's IT industry achieved a benchmark of US $ 1.065 billion of exports in last financial year 2017-18.
Federal Minister for Information Technology and Telecommunication Dr Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui Monday said that IT sector would bring a change in the country in future, so it is need of the hour time to digitalize the country. Talking to the media persons during his visit to the Virtual University (VU) here, he said that Pakistan was earning one billion dollars per annum through software development and its volume could be increased up to seven billion dollars per annum in the next five years
Similarly: IT exports fetch $540m in six months
According to Pakistan Software Export Board (PSEB), Pakistan’s IT & ITES-BPO industry comprises more than 2,500 companies, and this number is growing each year. The industry employs over 300,000 English-speaking professionals with many world-class experts in current and emerging IT products and technologies.
-UNGA president acknowledges Pakistan's peace-keeping history
President of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA), Ms Maria Fernanda Espinosa Monday acknowledged Pakistan’s meritorious contributions to the United Nation peacekeeping missions and termed it one of the largest countries to have contributed to bringing peace in areas marred by insecurity and unrest. Ms Fernanda stated this while interacting with faculty members and students of National University of Science and Technology (NUST) during her visit to the university.
Ms Fernanda, accompanied by Ms Maleeha Lodhi, Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the UN, paid a visit to Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS) at NUST. Lt Gen Naweed Zaman, HI (M), (Retd), Rector NUST, along with NUST senior management and faculty received the esteemed guests upon arrival at the main campus. She also lauded NUST for providing peacekeeping training both to local and foreign troops.
-More than 40 World Nations to participate in Pakistan Navy International Exercise
Pakistan Navy will host AMAN 19 exercise in February this year under the slogan of 'Together for Peace'. According to Pakistan Navy , more than forty countries will participate in the exercise. It is aimed at fostering maritime cooperation, promoting safe and security maritime environment for regional and global stability and for preserving oceans which is the common heritage of mankind.
-Gwadar to be made a modern port city
The Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Reform Makhdum Khusro Bakhtyar chaired a meeting to review progress on Gwadar City Master Plan project here on Monday. The meeting was attended by Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs Syed Ali Haider Zaidi, Commander Southern Command, Gen. Asim Saleem Bajwa, Balochistan Provincial Minister for Information Zahoor Ahmed Buledi, Secretary Planning Zafar Hasan and other officials, said in statement issued by Ministry for Planning, Development and Reform.
Director General Gwadar Development Authority, Dr. Sajjad Hussain and Project Director China Pakistan Economic Corridor Hasaan Duad briefed the participants regarding the master plan. It was agreed to develop Gwadar as a modern smart port city, keeping in view the international standards being followed across the globe.
-Top Pakistani company announces completion of mega construction project in Iraq
Attock Cement on Monday announced it had finished civil, mechanical and electrical work on its Iraq project and the cement grinding unit was at commissioning stage. In a notification sent to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), Attock Cement said it was in the process of obtaining permission for the import of clinker. It added once it got the approval, the company would start the process of import of clinker and thereafter commence trial production.
-European Union to provide 40 Million Euros for Balochistan Water Conservation Projects
European Union and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) have agreed to work in Balochistan in Water Conservation projects. This was told by EU Ambassador to Pakistan Jean-Francois Cautaian and IUCN Country Representative Mahmood Akhtar Cheema who called on Advisor to Prime Minister on Climate Change Malik Amin Aslam.
Under the agreement European Union will provide forty million Euros and IUCN will provide technical and human resource assistance.The Advisor briefed the delegation about the Ministry of Climate Change performance in environmental protection and conservation and apprised them the" Recharge Pakistan Project " which aims at raising the under water table by conserving flood water in the right and left bank of Indus River reservoirs, that water could be utilised for domestic as well as horticulture purposes.
-Pakistan, Turkey could increase bilateral trade between through FTA
Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and Turkey could potentially increase bilateral trade with direct impact in the emerging geo-political scenario, said Secretary General of The Businessmen Panel (BMP-Federal) and former chairman of FPCCI standing committee Ahmad Jawad on Monday.
-Punjab government to construct tunnel at Baba Guru Nanak birthplace for Sikh Pilgrims
Provincial Minister Human Rights & Minority Affairs Aijaz Alam Augustine Monday said Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had planned the construction of a tunnel from the railway station Nankana Sahib to the birthplace of Baba Guru Nanak to facilitate the Sikh pilgrims. The minister was talking to a delegation of minorities, led by MPA Mahendra Pal Singh, here.
He said that after completion of the project, the Sikh pedestrian pilgrims would be able to reach the birthplace of Baba Guru Nanak more comfortably. He said that under the PTI government, equal opportunities were being provided to the minorities in each sector besides protecting them. He said that provision of special funds for upgradation of the minority communities' worship places, upkeep and protection of their graveyards and their residential areas would be ensured. MPA Mahendra Pal Singh acknowledged the efforts made by the PTI government for the Sikh community.
-$1 billion export opportunity for Pakistan
Chief Executive Officer Pakistan Furniture Council (PFC) Mian Kashif Ashfaq has said Pakistan has great potential to export at least one billion dollars handmade wood furniture annually if the government properly patronizes furniture industry. In a statement, he urged the government to introduce a skill development programme for the export-oriented furniture industry with a view to promoting the country’s value-added sector. He said that a tax exempted furniture sector in Pakistan will enliven the economy in general, create new jobs and increase production level
-Bakhtiar calls for investor-friendly regulations in Gwadar
Planning, Development and Reform Minister Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar on Monday called for the provision of basic facilities to uplift Gwadar. He was chairing a meeting in the federal capital to review progress made on the Gwadar Master Plan project. The Gwadar Development Authority director general briefed the meeting about the master plan. It was decided that Gwadar would be made a green, clean and environment-friendly city. The minister instructed the authorities to initiate the process of preparing investor-friendly regulations in order to attract maximum investment in the port city.
-‘Govt taking all possible measures to facilitate private sector’
President Dr Arif Alvi said on Monday that revival of the economy was among his top priorities, adding that the government was committed to taking all possible measures to facilitate businesses. “The government is committed to developing the private sector through investment promotion, improvement in the ease of doing business, employment generation and fast growth of manufacturing sector,” he stated while talking to Amreli Steels Chairman Abbas Akberali.
The president underscored that investment in value-added products, where the country enjoyed a comparative advantage, was vital for economic revival. He said despite all challenges, the incumbent government was striving hard to develop an ecosystem which could attract investment in the country.
-FBR resolved 20% of total tax evasion and fraud cases involving billion of rupees in 2018, unearthed tax evasion worth Rs170 billion throughout Pakistan last year
Around 20% of the overall tax evasion and fraud cases involving billions of rupees have been resolved by the tax department during 2018.
The Director-General Intelligence and Investigation-Inland Revenue department has unearthed tax evasion worth Rs170 billion throughout Pakistan. Moreover, official data regarding these cases shows around 50,000 real estate transactions worth around Rs600 billion at deputy commissioner (DC) rate have been unearthed. However, the market value of these transactions unearthed is possibly going to be higher than the stated amount.
Out of these, around 7,500 transactions included people who were not present in tax rolls. Likewise, cases of people not on the tax rolls who purchased vehicles more than Rs10 million were also unearthed. According to an official, the number of these kinds of people numbers in the thousands in Islamabad alone. And all case reports were forwarded to the Federal Board of Revenue’s regional tax offices (RTOs) and large taxpayers’ units (LTUs) for recovery and execution.
-Govt to install 0.1m digital meters by Feb-end
Federal Minister for Power Omar Ayub Khan has directed electricity distribution companies to immediately undertake GIS (geographic information system) mapping of all 11-kilovolt feeders and replace 100,000 electromagnetic meters with digital meters by the end of February 2019 in order to reduce line losses.
The directives were issued in a meeting with chief executive officers of all the power distribution companies at the committee room of the Power Division on Monday.
The minister directed the CEOs to personally inspect the power transformers of various capacities on a random basis to ascertain their mechanical fitness. He also called for launching a clean-up operation in the highly populated areas and removing hazardous wires and other such things.
-Peshawar airport to commence night-time flight operations after five years
After a gap of five years, Bacha Khan International Airport in Peshawar will start night-time flight operations from January 22. The first flight, after the resumption of 24-hour flight operations, will be to Sharjah. Night flight operations were ceased in 2014 after gunmen fired at a Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) aircraft while it was landing. One passenger was reported dead in the incident while a member of the cabin crew was injured.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) Chief Minister Mahmood Khan was apprised about the plan and has been requested to appear for the inaugural flight. On January 3, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) installed a state-of-the-art full body scanner at the terminal to check for smuggling and money laundering.
-Weekly review: KSE-100 index posts gains for third successive week
The stock market had a somewhat decent performance during the outgoing week as the KSE-100 index advanced 258 points or 0.66% to settle at 39,307.
It was the third successive weekly rise, indicating that the cloud of uncertainty that hovered over the market was finally vanishing. The renewed interest was seen ahead of the upcoming mini-budget announcement, hinting that the new finance bill may bring good news for the investors. Expectations of a possible reduction or abolition of advance tax of 0.02% on brokers fuelled positive sentiments at the bourse.
The positivity was evident on first trading day of the week as the benchmark index rallied, following Finance Minister Asad Umar’s reassurances to the business community during his visit to Karachi at the weekend. Additionally, anticipation of measures to improve ease of doing business and reduction in input cost for the export-oriented sector also helped boost sentiments.
-Mazari underscores need for restructuring in Sindh, Punjab police
Underscoring the need for restructuring in Sindh and Punjab police, Minister for Human Rights Shireen Mazari on Monday accused Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government of politicizing police. Mazari said that time has come to end the decades of tolerance for killing through encounters. She said that cops involved in Sahiwal shootout should be given exemplary punishment. The minister clarified that Prime Minister Imran Khan had not appreciated the counter terrorism department.
Hi guys. I was looking through this sub, thinking of PM-ing a moderator or top contributor, but I looked through the mods' recent posts and didn't find one that obviously "clicked". So I looked through some recent posts and this seems like a good post to reply to for visibility.
I would like to spend time doing research into machine learning, and then use it on the Forex market when the midel makes high-confidence predictions. I have tons of spare time but no "bankroll", and since I understand that nothing I would do would affect the market, it seems kind of strange to try to grow a small account organically. What I mean is that if I made a 2% gain literally two hundred times in a row that would be a net 1.02200
= 52x, if there are no trading fees. Starting with $500 would only just get me to 26k, and if there were transaction fees even less. But starting with $5k (which I don't have atm) would net 260k. Even if I split it 80:20 to the backer that would still be better for me.
I do realize this is like pump and dump of penny stock schemes, which is why I think focusing on Forex would remove this component. I mean that I don't think it would require anyone to trust me, and on my end I wouldn't be sharing my model so if someone didn't pay up I could just move on to the next person - it would still be better than trying to grow from a small organic base.
So I think it is not really possible for me to pull one over on someone.
The specifics of the research I'd like to do is sentiment analysis of breaking news, and its effect on forex, since I think that analyzing sentiment from text is something I can leverage into my career: stuff like analyzing reviews, etc.
There is a lot of labelled/classified data on sites that let people leave reviews and also a star rating (i.e. the number of stars is the labelling/classification). Likewise the past results of forex markets based on news items would be my classification of those news items.
If anyone has any advice for me, I would be interested in hearing it here.
My background: I can program in multiple languages, and have less than a year of ML experience. I am currently learning about more advanced techniques. For the moment I would use my own setup which has 16 GB of RAM and a 1060 GPU with 6 GB. If I get my hands on a lot of data I would like to upgrade to 64 GB RAM and maybe a beefier RTX system. For my purposes I don't think I need to spend a lot more on the cloud. I think that the quality of the data that I start with and the model parameters are more important. In the end, the idea that an analyst can derive market sentiment from news is a pretty straightforward hypothesis.
Some of the main questions I have:
- Is what I have in mind reasonable?
- is there anything big that you think I'm missing?
- is there something about my approach that would make it seem like a scam? What can I do to remove this component or make the transaction more foolproof (remove counterparty risk)
- do I need to worry about a reverse scam: is anyone going to try to scam me? How can I eliminate this risk?
The main thing I could think of would be if they for example traded 500k but told me they were only doing 5k, so rather than 80:20 on profits, it's 99:1 to them which I consider unfair given my contribution. I think by verifying real world identity I could see what level someone was at.
What do you guys think? Anything else I need to know or should be aware of?
For Review: 'Intrinsically Tradable Tokens' (ITT's) are their own exchange
Introducing Intrinsically Tradable Tokens
, ERC20 compliant tokens in which you can buy and sell directly from the contract.
ITT's extend the ERC20 API with:
buy(uint price, uint amount, bool make) sell(uint price, uint amount, bool make) cancel(uint price) withdraw(uint ether)
and other ancillary exchange state getters (see Github repo
for full API) such as :
etherBalanceOf(address holder) getBook() getOrdersOf(address trader) spread(bool side)
The intrinsic exchange functionality works on a FIFO matching maketaker algorithm. A new order may be iteratively filled by multiple make orders on the book or if unfilled, can be put on the book itself as a make order.
ITT demo contracts have been deployed on the Ropsten test chain on which a number of Buy and Sell orders have already been placed for you to play with. The demo ITT and future, more functional ITT's can be can be interacted with using the front end DAPP ITTDesk
This demo ITT serves to demonstrate the exchange functionality of a basic ITT contract and does not have much intrinsic value in the token itself beyond being a purely speculative coin.
The ITT API and base contract are open source and offered to the community in order to extend or attach value adding functionality to the token side.
As is, crowd funding and token sales become as trivial by simply placing ask orders (see Self Funding below).
Better still would be to extended ITT functionality to make a 'Payable ITT' which becomes a simple but highly versatile pay to an unknown many
mechanism which can distribute payments according to proportional holdings. Such holdings might represent shareholders, a rewards system or perhaps be used to fund and manage a DAO's project funds. (I do have a Payable ITT but will not likely release it until the community has confidence in the basic ITT contract)
Other value adding developments might be to couple ITT's to fiat currencies for truly low friction decentralised forex.
Current State of Development
As deployed, the ITT Demo contract is yet to undergo extensive testing and formal verification. It appears to work as intended (unless compiled with 0.4.5+commit.b318366e! My first launch attempt drove me crazy until that bug was announced). The contract on both chains have been verified on etherscan.io etherscan.io
The ITTDesk app is very much in alpha release
, minimalist and clunky in it's function. It is written on Meteor and attempts to use Mist styling and elements. Probably best just to clone the repo and run it up in Meteor at this stage. It features intelligent ask/bid/buy/sell
trade buttons to assisting in validating user inputs in the order fields.
I am not an experienced web developer, so feed back, suggestions, criticisms are most welcome. In particular, I've not been able to work up the filters without causing browser timeout.
How does it work?
The order book utilises a mapping of 'Circular Linked Lists (CLL)' from the LibCLLi
library to order and lookup the booked prices and iterate the FIFO's at each price. Each FIFO in the mapping is keyed by its price and holds all the addresses of traders who have made orders at that price. A trader can only have a single order at any particular price. An attempt to book another order at the same price will adjust and put the order at the back of the FIFO queue. This prevents FIFO hogging in which a trader might otherwise starve other orders by continually topping up their own.
A second trivial mapping holds the actual order amounts. It is keyed by a SHA3 hash of the trader's address with the price of the order (and is actually what limits the trader to one price, one order).
The CLL's heads are static at mapping key '0'. To use as a FIFO, nodes are simply inserted previous to the head and removed from next to the head. A FILO (stack) can be implemented with equal simplicity.
In the case of the price list, the links either side of the head are the highestBid (previous) and lowestAsk (next) making the head node itself the market spread
. The price list is artificially bound to minimum (uint 1) and maximum (uint 2**128) prices. New price nodes are inserted relative to the head (spread) after iterating through an order search.
Looping operations in Smart Contracts can be bug prone and costly, especially with state mutations in each loop as in the ITT's matching algorithm. For this reason, the order matching loop is dynamically limited by the gas supply from msg.gas and will exit with a partially filled order rather than throw it. The remainder does not get put on the book as a make order as it would cause a bid/ask collision at that price. Because of this looping, gas cannot be estimated and it is up to the trader to consider the costs and adjust the amount of gas prior to ordering.
The matching algorithm is not without architectural efficiency however which almost halves the number to calls to STORE by virtualising (caching to memory) the taker's state variables prior to the matching loop and writing back to store once the matching and making operations exit.
Security and Resilience
ITT's hold ether balances and therefore are presumed to be targeted by hacking attempts. A number of security features and practices have therefore been programmed into the contract.
All external or payable state mutating functions are 'reentry protected' by a mutex which is set and cleared in the internal function safeSend(), which is called only by the public function withdraw(). This practice ensures a single entry and exit.
The architecture also separates entry validation logic and parameter preparation which is kept in the external/payable functions, from state mutation logic which is kept in the internal functions. This allows for a secure, flexible, inheritable API/interface layer from which to extend the contract while keeping the basic ITT internal functionality the same.
In the ITT Demo, the default function is unimplemented and therefore throws if payments are sent to anything other than the payable buy() function.
Attention must also be drawn to some rather unconventional
use of uint math in the matching loop. Elsewhere, the contract uses explicitly safe maths functions, however the nature of an exchange function requires numerous inverse and signed integer operations. It was found that casting between int and uint became an onerous task with potentially unpredictable outcome and a design decision was made to simply treat uint as signed within the matching loop. In this case -1 == 2**256-1 and is used in multiplication to change the sign of trade amounts during matching.
In light of the signed uint adoption, a further mathematical constraint was placed on the maximum price and amount allowed being 2**128 which prevents any multiplication overflows.
Given that this contract is Proof of Concept
deployment primarily for public review, it should be considered insecure. It has been tested for functionality but no exhaustive testing regime or formal verification has been put against it. It is undeniably a big ugly contract
with complex logic and so should be viewed with suspicion.
Interacting with the Live contract is thereby at your own risk!
Being the deploying owner of this Demo ITT, I am granted the full balance of tokens and have placed both ask and bid orders as examples. Purchasing my Ask orders on the Live chain does transfer real ether to my balance and so I am trailing this as a channel for funding my development efforts rather than chasing bounties, competitions, donations, (a real job) or what have you. If you buy tokens here, you could consider it as a much appreciated donation
which you might also be able to return a speculative profit from! It would certainly make my life easier. :)
Who Am I?
My name is Darryl Morris AKA o0ragman0o. I'm an independent (and some what isolated) Australian Ethereum developer. Though fairly quite, I've been following Ethereum developments since November 2014 (PoC 6) and have been small time mining since Olympic, though not now with expensive Australian electricity. I am best known on [forum.ethereum.org](forum.ethereum.org) where I am a mod. I've been crypto aware since 2009 when I tried bitcoin in it's infancy. I got 71/70 marks for Griff Green's notorious 'DAO Ninja' homework though obviously needed 72 to recognise the complex of vulnerabilities in that code!
My interests are in developing delegative democracy
technologies with which to render all politicians obsolete (particularly ones beginning with 'T'). To that end I've developed the ITT contract as a funding component of a democracy DAO framework I call 'Ethenian DAO'.
Looking for interested collaborators.
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